Malawi's education system has a documented pattern of well-designed reforms failing between the policy document and the classroom. In July 2025, the Malawi Institute of Education launched a new National Curriculum and Assessment Framework proposing a structural shift from the existing 0-8-4-4 education classes model to a 1-6-6-3 architecture, the most substantial change since independence. As of mid-2026, classroom rollout has not yet begun. No baseline exists against which to measure what this reform does when it lands. This study builds that baseline. Using fifteen years of Education Management Information System panel data, Primary School Leaving Certificate of Education cohort records from the Malawi National Examinations Board, and the 2016 and 2021 Malawi Longitudinal School Survey datasets, the study applies a panel regression with school and year fixed effects to identify the school-level conditions most strongly associated with variation in foundational learning outcomes across Malawi's 34 education districts. A school-level Implementation Readiness Index, constructed via principal component analysis, captures the combined effect of teacher qualification rates, pupil-to-teacher ratios, materials availability, and early childhood education coverage. Primary data collection in year two which will include adapted Early Grade Reading and Mathematics Assessment instruments across approximately 60 schools will establish learner outcome baseline and produces a district-level readiness typology. The findings are designed to reach the Ministry of education at the start of implementation, when decisions can still be shaped by evidence.
Project leader: SAMUEL KANDIDZIWA
Project researchers:
Scientific mentors: Pouirkèta Rita Nikiema
No journal publications.
No working papers.
No policy briefs.
No final reports.
No proposals.
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