A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to conduct an ex-ante analysis of the economy-wide impacts of new agricultural technologies in India. Differential impacts of changes in productivity of new promising cultivars for irrigated and rainfed maize and wheat are incorporated in the model. Technological change in these crops results in higher future economic growth as well as food security, both in food consumption and availability. While there is considerable scope for increasing the production of both crops through the introduction of new technologies, maize (both irrigated and rainfed) with promising cultivars for higher yield gain generates significant growth in output. The projected gains for wheat are primarily in the rainfed wheat output as this is where the yield gaps are highest from the promising technologies. Low prices of consumption goods, particularly for maize and wheat, stimulate higher consumption of these cereals and other food commodities. Rural households, particularly cultivators, artisans and agricultural workers benefit the most in terms of increased food consumption from introduction of the new technologies. Given the relative higher estimated yield gains from the promising maize technologies, the positive impacts of maize technologies on food security and national income are higher than the impacts of wheat on these indicators. In view of the severe land and water constraints in Indian agriculture, maize which is predominantly rainfed and widely adapted could be a viable alternative for the future. However, a joint improvement of maize and wheat productivity would further enhance the economic condition and food security in India.
Project leader: Bekele Shiferaw
Project researchers: Amarendra Sahoo | Sika Gbegbelegbe
No journal publications.
| Title | Modified | Size | Comments | Recommendations | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A CGE analysis of the implications of technological change in Indian agriculture | 2016-07-27 | 2153KB | 0 | 0 |
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