MPIA-11741 Trade Liberalization and the Dynamic of Poverty in Tunisia: A Layered CGE Microsimulation Analysis

Abstract

The effects of trade liberalization on poverty in Tunisia are examined, using a layered dynamic CGE-microsimulation approach. A dynamic CGE model endogenously generates the evolution of prices and, for each households group, income paths under protection and freer trade assumptions. These results are then used to assess the change in real income of each household, using a sample from 1995 household survey, and so the effects of the simulated changes on poverty. Dominance tests are also used to avoid the arbitrariness of choosing a poverty line and a poverty measure. Simulation results show that trade openness slowdowns the poverty reduction in the short run, but enhances it in the long-run.

Members

Project leader: Sami Bibi

Project researchers: Rim Chatti

Journal publication

No journal publications.

Working Papers

	Title	Modified	Size	Comments	Recommendations
	Libéralisation des échanges et dynamique de la pauvreté en Tunisie : Analyse avec une microsimulation séquentielle - Working paper 2006-07	2006-04-15	346 KB	0	0
	Trade Liberalization and the Dynamics of Poverty in Tunisia: A Layered CGE Microsimulation analysis	2006-04-15	346.56KB	0	0

Policy Briefs

	Title	Modified	Size	Comments	Recommendations
	Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Tunisia: Short-term Pain for Long-Term Gain	2007-09-15	29.21KB	0	0

Final report

No final reports.

Proposal

No proposals.